Under geopolitical risk, will Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana crash?

As the new year of 2026 begins, the market is enveloped in a quiet tension. The trigger is a series of reports regarding the detention of Nicolás Maduro by the Donald Trump campaign.

On social media and some media outlets, immediately

"War risk = collapse of risk assets"
"Cryptocurrencies will crash"

such simplistic views spread.

However, traders and institutional investors who have survived in the market for a long time see this news from a completely different perspective.

What is important is

"Not what has happened, but why it has happened now"

and

"Which gears of the financial markets it will affect"

Why the United States has moved Venezuela now

To see this event as just a "sudden incident" would miss the essence.

Venezuela has maintained for many years,

• an anti-American stance,
• closeness to Russia and China,
• a unique economic sphere based on oil resources.

For the United States, Venezuela is not seen as "an enemy to be defeated" but rather as one of the "last resource countries not under control".

This move is closer to a "reorganization of the hegemony order" than a war.

In other words,

this is a calm geopolitical operation, not an emotional conflict.

What is important here is that such movements are not the kind to immediately destroy the global financial system.

Reasons the market remains cautious

So, why is the market on edge?

The reason is simple.

The financial market reacts not to "facts" but to "the possibility of a chain reaction".

This situation is being watched because of the possible

• involvement of other countries (such as Russia and Iran),
• impact on crude oil prices,
• reignition of inflation leading to rising interest rates.

These could lead to "secondary and tertiary damages".

However, at this point,

• there is no panic in U.S. stock indices,
• the VIX is not at crisis levels,
• the U.S. bond market is also maintaining order.

In summary,

"Caution is present, but fear is not dominating"

the situation.

Cryptocurrencies are not "one-size-fits-all"

Here lies the biggest misunderstanding many individual investors have.

It is the view that "all cryptocurrencies are the same type of risk asset".

This is clearly incorrect.

The position of Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC is no longer seen as

"the representative of speculative altcoins".

• Pension and institutional funds through ETFs,
• macro investments with a long-term hold basis,
• as a "quasi-safe haven" during geopolitical risks.

This has begun to establish its character.

Therefore,

BTC will remain until the market falls into complete panic.

The intermediate nature of Ethereum (ETH)

ETH is in between BTC and altcoins.

• If BTC stabilizes, ETH can hold.
• If BTC collapses, ETH will fall even more significantly.

Structurally, it can be regarded as an entity that amplifies the influence of BTC.

The precariousness of Solana (SOL)

SOL clearly symbolizes

risk-on assets.

• Leverage funding,
• short-term funds,
• positions focused on high-frequency trading.

These are concentrated, and at the moment fear arises, it will be sold off the fastest and deepest.

Three future scenarios viewed from probability theory

From here on, we will set aside emotions and

organize with probability theory.

Scenario 1: Limited adjustment (about 55%)

• Geopolitical risks do not expand,
• U.S. stocks only experience a correction,
• Cryptocurrencies go through a healthy profit-taking phase.

Expected range:

• BTC -5 to -10%
• ETH -10 to -15%
• SOL -15 to -25%

This is the most realistic scenario, and adjustments have already started to be priced in.

Scenario 2: Expansion of risk-off (about 30%)

• U.S. stocks clearly collapse,
• Leverage liquidations chain reaction.

Expected range:

• BTC -15 to -25%
• ETH -25 to -35%
• SOL -35 to -50%

These levels would be regarded by many as a "crash".

Scenario 3: Full panic (less than 15%)

• Military conflicts expand,
• Crude oil, interest rates, and stocks collapse simultaneously.

Expected range:

• BTC -30% or more,
• ETH -40% or more,
• SOL -50 to -60%.

This scenario will not occur without the alignment of certain conditions.

Conclusion: The mindset to survive in the market

This incident is not a "trigger" that will destroy the cryptocurrency market.

However, it is undoubtedly a fact that it has made the market's nerves tauter.

Those who continue to win in the market are not the ones who take chances but rather those

"who do not suffer fatal injuries when wrong."

Now is the time to

• lighten up on positions,
• confirm BTC's lead,
• avoid overconfidence in alts.

Just with this, there will be a clear distinction from a large number of exiters.

* This article does not recommend specific investment actions but rather offers insights based on market structure and probability theory.